US Annual Home Price Growth Slows to Half of Spring 2022 Peak, CoreLogic Reports

Nationwide, home prices were up by 10.1% year over year in October, down from 20.1% growth in April
Home price acceleration is projected to decline steadily until next spring, when the market could post some annual losses

IRVINE, Calif., December 6, 2022—CoreLogic, a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI) and HPI Forecast for October 2022.

Year-over-year home price growth remained in double digits in October, at 10.1%, but continued to cool and was the lowest recorded since early 2021. Several factors are contributing to slowing appreciation: low inventory due to seller preferences to keep affordable mortgage rates that they have already locked in, homebuyer loss of purchase power and current economic uncertainty. Annual U.S. price growth is expected to taper off in the coming months, perhaps moving into negative territory by spring 2023, but then slowly ticking back into single digits as the year progresses.

“Following the recent mortgage rate surge above 7%, real estate activity and consumer sentiment regarding the housing market took a nosedive,” said Selma Hepp, interim lead of the Office of the Chief Economist at CoreLogic. “Home price growth continued to approach single digits in October, and it will move in that direction for the rest of the year and into 2023.”

“However,” Hepp continued, “while some housing markets have seen significant recalibration since the spring price peak and are likely to post losses in 2023, further deteriorating for-sale inventory, some relief in mortgage rate increases and relatively positive economic news may help eventually stabilize home prices.”

Top Takeaways:

U.S. home prices (including distressed sales) increased 10.1% year over year in October 2022 compared to October 2021. On a month-over-month basis, home prices declined by 0.1% compared to September 2022.
In October, annual appreciation of detached properties (10.1%) was 0.3 percentage points higher than that of attached properties (9.8%).
Annual U.S. home price gains are forecast to slow to 4.1% by October 2023.
Miami posted the highest year-over-year home price increase of the country’s 20 largest metro areas in October, at 22.6%, while Tampa, Florida retained the No. 2 slot at 20%.
Florida and South Carolina recorded the highest home price gains, 20.2% and 16.1%, respectively. Georgia and North Carolina tied for third, with 15.3% year-over-year increases. Washington, D.C. ranked last for appreciation at 0.2%.

HPI National and State Maps – August 2022

The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.

Nationally, home prices increased 10.1% year over year in October. No states posted an annual decline in home prices. The states with the highest increases year over year were Florida (20.2%), South Carolina (16.1%) and Georgia and North Carolina (both 15.3%).

The next CoreLogic HPI press release, featuring November 2022 data, will be issued on January 3, 2023, at 8 a.m. EST.