CoreLogic: House Prices Up 3.5% Year-Over-Year in October

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 3.5% in October 2019 compared with October 2018 and increased month over month by 0.5% in October 2019 compared with September 2019.

The states with the highest increases year-over-year were Idaho (10.9%), Maine (7.5%) and Indiana (7.1%).

Forecast Prices Nationally
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase by 5.4% on a year-over-year basis from October 2019 to October 2020. On a month-over-month basis, home prices are expected to increase by 0.2% from October 2019 to November 2019. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

Local home-price growth can deviate widely from the change in our U.S. index. While we saw prices up 3.5% nationally last year, home prices also declined in 22 metropolitan areas. Price softness occurred in some high-cost urban areas and in metros with weak employment growth during the past year.” Dr. Frank Nothaft, Chief Economist for CoreLogic.

Market Conditions Indicators (MCI) Metro Area Maps - October 2019

In an analysis of the country’s 100 largest metropolitan areas based on housing stock, 35% of cities have an overvalued housing stock as of October 2019, according to CoreLogic Market Conditions Indicators (MCI) data. The MCI analysis categorizes home prices in individual markets as undervalued, at value or overvalued by comparing home prices to their long-run, sustainable levels, which are supported by local market fundamentals such as disposable income. Also, as of October, 27% of the top 100 metropolitan areas were undervalued and 38% were at value. When looking at only the top 50 markets based on housing stock, 40% were overvalued, 20% were undervalued and 40% were at value. The MCI analysis defines an overvalued housing market as one in which home prices are at least 10% higher than the long-term, sustainable level, while an undervalued housing market is one in which home prices are at least 10% below the sustainable level.